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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Tim Elliott
Flyweight

Tim Elliott

21-14-1 UFC 11-12-0
Chain Wrestling Granite Chin Volume Machine Submission-Vulnerable
5'7"Height
66"Reach
SouthpawStance
39Age
0KO wins
3Sub wins
27.3%Finish rate
12:23Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 60 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Sep 2026 · stats read 43 → nudged -5 inside the band · tag pace: high volume (+2) · claims striking volume +3, striking technique +1, pressure +2 (+6) Accuracy — Below avg, rated 34 of 100 · claims striking technique +1 (+2) Striking D — Average, rated 54 of 100 · claims striking defense -2, head movement -1 (-8) Durability — Strong, rated 93 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Wrestling — Above avg, rated 84 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling solid · Dec 2023 · stats read 96 → nudged +7 inside the band · claims td offense +2 (+4) TD Defense — Average, rated 64 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling solid (no takedown-defence tag), half-weighted with the stats read 42 · claims getup +3 (+4) Grappling — Above avg, rated 80 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling solid · Sep 2026 · stats read 70 → nudged -2 inside the band · tag sub threat: good (+3) · claims sub offense +1 (+2) Control — Strong, rated 86 of 100 · claims top control +1 (+4) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking good
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night Silva vs Delgado Full Card Preview & Predictions · September 9, 2026 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Della Maddalena vs Prates Full Card Preview & Predictions · April 26, 2026 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 319 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 13, 2025 watch ↗
grappling solid
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • solid UFC Fight Night Silva vs Delgado Full Card Preview & Predictions · September 9, 2026 watch ↗
  • solid UFC Fight Night Della Maddalena vs Prates Full Card Preview & Predictions · April 26, 2026 watch ↗
  • solid UFC 319 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 13, 2025 watch ↗
wrestling solid
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • solid UFC Fight Night Song vs. Gutierrez Full Card Breakdown, Prediction, & Analysis (UFC Vegas 83) · December 5, 2023 watch ↗
  • solid UFC 294 Full Card Breakdown, Predictions, & Analysis · October 18, 2023 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Kara-France vs Albazi Predictions & Full Card Breakdown (UFC Vegas 74) · May 30, 2023 watch ↗
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking good 3 reads
grappling solid 3 reads
wrestling solid 3 reads
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Wrestling, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Striking D, TD Defense, Control · stats alone on Durability.

Chain Wrestling 70 takedowns from 154 attempts · 3.7 landed per 15 min
Granite Chin never dropped in 284 minutes of cage time · 0 losses by knockout
Volume Machine 138 MMA · Sep 2026 tags pace: high volume
Submission-Vulnerable 5 of 12 losses came by submission
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min3.55
Sig. strikes absorbed / min3.05
Striking accuracy42.4%
Striking defense56.2%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.11
Takedowns / 15 min3.69
Takedown accuracy45.5%
Takedown defense59.4%
Sub attempts / 15 min1.0
Control time30.4%
Record vs .500+ opponents5-10

Insider info

6 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Edgar Chairez clear UFC Fight Night Silva vs Delgado Full Card Preview & Predictions · September 9, 2026
strikinggood grapplingsolid wrestlingsolid

Says he'd "be surprised" if Elliott weren't "the better grappler," and explicitly credits him to escape a choke-based defense, a real, addressed mechanism.

Elliott brings a high, awkward pace early that the analyst says makes him hard to read in the striking exchanges, with good forward pressure. On the ground he is the far better grappler of the two, with heavy takedown volume, elite-level scrambling, and an unconventional, live submission game. The analyst also calls him a veteran willing to bend the rules to win, which could risk a point deduction. He notes Elliott underperformed in his most recent fight for reasons he can't quite explain.

Strengthhigh, awkward early pace that's hard to read
Strengthforward pressure
Strengthhigh-volume takedown attack
Strengthelite scrambling
Strengthunorthodox, live submission game
Strengthveteran craft/gamesmanship
Weaknessfaded or underperformed in the middle rounds of his last fight for unclear reasons
Weaknessgamesmanship risks a point deduction
pace · high volume
vs Steve Erceg coinflip UFC Fight Night Della Maddalena vs Prates Full Card Preview & Predictions · April 26, 2026 · 1 read since
strikingdecent grapplingsolid wrestlingsolid

says outright he doesn't know which side to take before settling on a single-round rationale

Tim Elliott is a decent but extremely unorthodox striker whose awkward, uncomfortable style is expected to play directly on an increasingly hesitant opponent. He is also a solid, high-pace grappler with good takedown volume and strong scrambling ability. He is also willing to bend the rules to find an edge. The pick leans on landing one of his awkward strikes early enough to take over at least one round, without expecting him to finish the fight outright.

Strengthdecent volume, extremely unorthodox and awkward to read
Strengthsolid, high-pace grappler with good scrambling
Weaknessnothing technically special on the feet beyond the awkward look
pace · high volume
vs Kai Asakura clear UFC 319 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 13, 2025 · 2 reads since
strikingdecent grapplingsolid wrestlingsolid

gives a full mechanism (better striker, enough grappling to keep up, hits hard enough to hurt Elliott) and closes 'Kaio Sakura is my pick' with no reversal on the win itself

Framed as a boom-or-bust fighter who can beat anybody in the division on a given night and lose to almost anyone else, with an unorthodox, hard-to-predict striking style (decent forward pressure, good volume) that the analyst nonetheless expects to be outclassed strike-for-strike here. His real advantage is grappling: solid with very good takedown volume, shooting takedowns often, good scrambles and excellent pace, generally the more skilled grappler, though he hunts submissions over position and can get overly aggressive chasing them. Also noted for borderline/foul tactics in fights. Has not fought in almost two years.

Strengthunorthodox, hard-to-predict striker
Strengthdecent forward pressure
Strengthgood volume
Strengthvery good takedown volume, shoots often
Strengthgood scrambles
Strengthexcellent pace
Strengthgenerally the more skilled grappler here
Strengthattacks submissions well
Weaknessexpected to be outclassed on the feet specifically against this opponent
Weaknesssubmission-over-position approach, can get too aggressive chasing finishes
Weaknesshistory of borderline/foul tactics that newer officiating rules could now penalize with an in-fight point deduction
pace · high volumesub threat · good
vs Sumudaerji lean UFC Fight Night Song vs. Gutierrez Full Card Breakdown, Prediction, & Analysis (UFC Vegas 83) · December 5, 2023 · 3 reads since
wrestlingsolid

He repeats the Elliott pick three times (take him, going to take him, Elliott's to pick) and gives a real mechanism -- getting the wrestling going before being caught on the feet -- but hedges on whether Elliott's timing will be sharp on short notice and says he is not sure how the bantamweight move affects either man.

A veteran, savvy, unorthodox striker who presses forward with volume and unpredictable movement, though his hands-down habit leaves him open to clean counters, especially if his timing is off on short notice. His wrestling is rated solid: good takedown volume and scrambles, and a submission-over-position style that attacks constantly even at the cost of position, wearing opponents down as the fight wears on. He is also noted, board-corroborated, as a gamesmanship-minded fighter who will do what it takes to win.

Strengthveteran savvy, long UFC experience
Strengthsolid wrestling, good takedown volume and scrambles
Strengthconstant, high-pace submission pressure that wears opponents down over a fight
Weaknessoften fights with his hands down, can be caught clean
Weaknessshort-notice timing is an open question
vs Muhammad Mokaev clear UFC 294 Full Card Breakdown, Predictions, & Analysis · October 18, 2023 · 4 reads since
wrestlingsolid

Repeats 'give me Tim Elliott' more than once, after openly saying he refuses to let the market's huge underdog price talk him out of the pick. The hedge is entirely about price, not about who wins; he never wavers on the winner once stated.

Tim Elliott is a crafty, battle-tested veteran: a solid wrestler in his own right with good takedown volume, constant forward pressure, and great scrambles, applying a relentless pace especially early in a fight. His striking is unpredictable and unorthodox, landing volume that opponents don't see coming. He gives up position at times but his scrambling ability compensates. He's also noted as a 'dirty fighter' / gamesmanship-heavy veteran whose rule-bending has paid off in past wins (an in-cage style note, not a conduct allegation). At 36, his age is flagged as a red flag, though the analyst still says he 'looks good.'

Strengthgood takedown volume
Strengthgreat scrambles
Strengthrelentless pace especially early
Strengthunpredictable, high-volume striking
Strengthveteran gamesmanship/savvy
Weaknessgives up position at times
Weaknessage (36) flagged as a red flag
pace · fast starter
vs Victor Altamirano clear UFC Fight Night Kara-France vs Albazi Predictions & Full Card Breakdown (UFC Vegas 74) · May 30, 2023 · 5 reads since
wrestlinggood

He names Altamirano directly and separately states he is passing on the sympathetic veteran despite liking him personally -- both plain, repeated commitments tied to specific striking reasoning, not a bare pick.

Elliott is read as a stylistic oddity: unorthodox, unpredictable striking from odd angles with good volume, paired with a relentless, high-pace takedown-volume wrestling approach and a submission-over-position grappling style. The analyst calls him a genuinely difficult matchup to game-plan for, yet still picks against him here on the strength of the opponent's striking.

StrengthGood volume, unorthodox and unpredictable striking
StrengthRelentless takedown volume and pace
StrengthSubmission-over-position grappling once on top
WeaknessUnorthodox movement can occasionally leave him caught off balance
pace · high volume

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 8 fights · green = win
October 9, 2021 vs Matheus Nicolau — 4.67/min (L) Oct '21 March 5, 2022 vs Tagir Ulanbekov — 5.27/min (W) Mar '22 June 3, 2023 vs Victor Altamirano — 1.87/min (W) Jun '23 October 21, 2023 vs Muhammad Mokaev — 2.3/min (L) Oct '23 December 9, 2023 vs Sumudaerji — 2.48/min (W) — only 4.0 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Dec '23 August 16, 2025 vs Kai Asakura — 2.8/min (W) Aug '25 May 2, 2026 vs Steve Erceg — 6.0/min (L) May '26 September 12, 2026 vs Edgar Chairez — 4.27/min (W) Sep '26

Fight history

23 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
W Edgar Chairez 14-6 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · September 12, 2026
64/204Sig. strikes
58/124Absorbed
5/11Takedowns
5:54Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Steve Erceg 13-4 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 2, 2026
90/261Sig. strikes
136/254Absorbed
2/11Takedowns
0:34Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Kai Asakura 20-5 walk-in Submission · R2 4:39 — UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · August 16, 2025
27/71Sig. strikes
21/87Absorbed
2/3Takedowns
1:54Control
0Knockdowns
2Sub attempts
W Sumudaerji 3-2 walk-in Submission · R1 4:02 — UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · December 9, 2023
10/21Sig. strikes
10/25Absorbed
1/3Takedowns
2:05Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
L Muhammad Mokaev 10-0 walk-in Submission · R3 3:03 — UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · October 21, 2023
30/43Sig. strikes
14/33Absorbed
1/1Takedowns
2:23Control
0Knockdowns
2Sub attempts
W Victor Altamirano 2-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · June 3, 2023
28/57Sig. strikes
19/39Absorbed
6/7Takedowns
11:13Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Tagir Ulanbekov 13-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · March 5, 2022
79/179Sig. strikes
90/186Absorbed
3/9Takedowns
0:52Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Matheus Nicolau 17-2-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · October 9, 2021
70/215Sig. strikes
64/109Absorbed
1/10Takedowns
2:28Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Jordan Espinosa 15-8 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · March 6, 2021
25/44Sig. strikes
13/25Absorbed
4/7Takedowns
13:19Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Ryan Benoit 10-6 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige · July 15, 2020
67/169Sig. strikes
55/122Absorbed
1/13Takedowns
2:42Control
0Knockdowns
2Sub attempts
L Brandon Royval 10-4 walk-in Submission · R2 3:18 — UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020
17/32Sig. strikes
16/33Absorbed
4/10Takedowns
4:01Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Askar Askarov 11-0-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · January 18, 2020
47/111Sig. strikes
73/150Absorbed
3/11Takedowns
2:02Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Deiveson Figueiredo 16-1 walk-in Submission · R1 3:08 — UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · October 12, 2019
26/38Sig. strikes
8/13Absorbed
1/3Takedowns
0:04Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Mark De La Rosa 9-0 walk-in Submission · R2 1:41 — UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · December 30, 2017
12/24Sig. strikes
2/4Absorbed
1/1Takedowns
5:34Control
0Knockdowns
2Sub attempts
L Ben Nguyen 17-6 walk-in Submission · R1 0:49 — UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · June 10, 2017
1/4Sig. strikes
3/7Absorbed
0/2Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Louis Smolka 11-3 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · April 15, 2017
57/91Sig. strikes
41/97Absorbed
12/14Takedowns
8:03Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
L Demetrious Johnson 17-2-1 walk-in TITLE Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00 — The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · December 3, 2016
24/61Sig. strikes
28/58Absorbed
4/4Takedowns
3:38Control
0Knockdowns
2Sub attempts
L Zach Makovsky 18-5 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · February 14, 2015
43/88Sig. strikes
21/33Absorbed
1/2Takedowns
1:15Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Joseph Benavidez 19-4 walk-in Submission · R1 4:08 — UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · April 26, 2014
16/21Sig. strikes
9/23Absorbed
3/3Takedowns
1:16Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Ali Bagautinov 11-2 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · November 16, 2013
48/158Sig. strikes
43/150Absorbed
2/4Takedowns
1:06Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Louis Gaudinot 6-2 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · August 31, 2013
116/200Sig. strikes
28/78Absorbed
6/6Takedowns
9:07Control
0Knockdowns
2Sub attempts
W Jared Papazian 0-2 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · December 15, 2012
36/69Sig. strikes
36/97Absorbed
7/14Takedowns
7:07Control
1Knockdowns
4Sub attempts
L John Dodson 12-5 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · May 5, 2012
79/225Sig. strikes
80/233Absorbed
0/5Takedowns
0:02Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

Full pro career (Wikipedia, results only)
21-14-1Pro record
Grindhouse / Glory MMA and Fitness (2011–2017, 2020–2022), Next Generation MMA (2022–present)Gym / team

Wins by method

KO/TKO 3
Submission 8
Decision 10
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 6
Decision 7
Other 0

Draws: 1

Fights by organization

UFC 22
Oklahoma FC 5
Titan FC 3
RFA 2
Cowboy MMA 1
Art of War Cage Fights 1
C3 Fights 1
Harrah Fight Night 1
Full career — 36 fights, every organization
OpponentMethodEventOrg RdTime
L Steve Erceg Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
May 2, 2026
UFC 3 5:00
W Kai Asakura Submission (guillotine choke) UFC 319
August 16, 2025
UFC 2 4:39
W Su Mudaerji Technical Submission (arm-triangle choke) UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutiérrez
December 9, 2023
UFC 1 4:02
L Muhammad Mokaev Submission (arm-triangle choke) UFC 294
October 21, 2023
UFC 3 3:03
W Victor Altamirano Decision (unanimous) UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi
June 3, 2023
UFC 3 5:00
W Tagir Ulanbekov Decision (unanimous) UFC 272
March 5, 2022
UFC 3 5:00
L Matheus Nicolau Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
October 8, 2021
UFC 3 5:00
W Jordan Espinosa Decision (unanimous) UFC 259
March 6, 2021
UFC 3 5:00
W Ryan Benoit Decision (unanimous) UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Ige
July 16, 2020
UFC 3 5:00
L Brandon Royval Submission (arm-triangle choke) UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns
May 30, 2020
UFC 2 3:18
L Askar Askarov Decision (unanimous) UFC 246
January 18, 2020
UFC 3 5:00
L Deiveson Figueiredo Submission (guillotine choke) UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson
October 12, 2019
UFC 1 3:08
W Mark De La Rosa Submission (anaconda choke) UFC 219
December 30, 2017
UFC 2 1:41
L Ben Nguyen Submission (rear-naked choke) UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
June 11, 2017
UFC 1 0:49
W Louis Smolka Decision (unanimous) UFC on Fox: Johnson vs. Reis
April 15, 2017
UFC 3 5:00
L Demetrious Johnson Decision (unanimous) The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale
December 3, 2016
UFC 5 5:00
W Pedro Nobre Decision (unanimous) Titan FC 37
March 5, 2016
Titan FC 5 5:00
W Felipe Efrain Submission (guillotine choke) Titan FC 35
September 19, 2015
Titan FC 2 2:30
W Iliarde Santos Decision (unanimous) Titan FC 34
July 18, 2015
Titan FC 5 5:00
L Zach Makovsky Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs. Thatch
February 14, 2015
UFC 3 5:00
L Joseph Benavidez Submission (guillotine choke) UFC 172
April 26, 2014
UFC 1 4:08
L Ali Bagautinov Decision (unanimous) UFC 167
November 16, 2013
UFC 3 5:00
W Louis Gaudinot Decision (unanimous) UFC 164
August 31, 2013
UFC 3 5:00
W Jared Papazian Decision (unanimous) The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
December 15, 2012
UFC 3 5:00
L John Dodson Decision (unanimous) UFC on Fox: Diaz vs. Miller
May 5, 2012
UFC 3 5:00
W Josh Rave Technical Submission (brabo choke) RFA 2
March 30, 2012
RFA 1 0:28
W Jens Pulver KO (knee) RFA 1
December 16, 2011
RFA 2 2:12
W Kashif Solarin Submission (guillotine choke) Cowboy MMA: Caged Cowboys
May 21, 2011
Cowboy MMA 1 0:57
W John McDowell TKO (punches) Art of War Cage Fights 1
February 26, 2011
Art of War Cage Fights 1 2:56
W Victor Dominguez Decision (unanimous) C3 Fights 26
October 22, 2010
C3 Fights 3 5:00
W Cody Fuller Submission (triangle choke) Oklahoma FC: Bricktown Brawl 5
June 25, 2010
Oklahoma FC 3 2:34
W Michael Casteel Submission (rear-naked choke) Oklahoma FC: Bricktown Brawl 4
April 2, 2010
Oklahoma FC 1 2:01
W Victor Veloquio KO (punches) Oklahoma FC: Bricktown Brawl 3
December 11, 2009
Oklahoma FC 1 0:33
L Jacky Bryant TKO (punches) Oklahoma FC: Bricktown Brawl 2
August 28, 2009
Oklahoma FC 1 0:52
L Shane Howell Submission (triangle choke) Harrah Fight Night 1
June 27, 2009
Harrah Fight Night 3 2:25
D Jerod Spoon Draw (unanimous) Oklahoma FC: Bricktown Brawl 1
May 8, 2009
Oklahoma FC 3 5:00

Career history from the fighter's Wikipedia record table (Tim Elliott) — results only, no strike stats; UFC bouts are marked and carry full stats in the fight history above.

Division context

vs. 67 qualified Flyweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 3.5 avg 3.4
Strikes absorbed /min 3.0 avg 3.3
Striking accuracy 42.4% avg 44.9%
Striking defense 56.2% avg 56.2%
Takedowns /15 min 3.7 avg 1.7
Takedown accuracy 45.5% avg 36.0%
Takedown defense 59.4% avg 60.8%
Sub attempts /15 min 1.0 avg 0.7
Control time 30.4% avg 19.8%
Finish rate 27.3% avg 45.9%

Headshot of Tim Elliott by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized