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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Daniel Santos vs. John Castaneda

UFC 5-2-0 vs. 4-5-1

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
5-2-0
UFC record
4-5-1
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Bantamweight
31
AgeΔ 3 yrs
34
5'7"
HeightΔ 1"
5'6"
67"
ReachΔ 4"
71"
Orthodox1-0 vs switch-stance fighters
Stance
Switch4-5-1 vs orthodox fighters
0.4
Layoff (months)Δ 0.9 mo
1.3
WLWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LDLLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Daniel Santos hunts takedowns — 2.49 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.
Daniel Santos owns the mat — in control 27% of cage time, vs a 16% Featherweight norm.
John Castaneda carries real power — 0.46 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.29 Bantamweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Daniel Santos

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 42
Tier 3 — regional circuit 101

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.21 · 4 tier-1/2 wins · 9 finish wins over 17 documented bouts

In the UFC: 3-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.7 wins over .500

John Castaneda

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 54
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 01
Tier 3 — regional circuit 143

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.8 · 5 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 28 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.6 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4335.14/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
6545.00/min · norm 3.52
4425.24/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
6635.07/min · norm 3.58
41.6%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
51.9%norm 43.5%
48.6%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
54.7%norm 56.6%
20.36/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
40.46/15 · norm 0.29

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Daniel Santos

Distance 88.8% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 4.8% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 6.4% (norm 6.4%)

John Castaneda

Distance 93.5% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 4.4% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 2.1% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Daniel Santos

Head 76.7% (norm 77.5%) · Body 15.5% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 7.9% (norm 7.9%)

John Castaneda

Head 69.0% (norm 77.5%) · Body 12.7% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 18.3% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Santos L/AAccFeatherweight med Castaneda L/AAccBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 343 / 924 37.1% 40.7% 595 / 1179 50.5% 39.2%
In the clinch 38 / 50 76.0% 70.5% 38 / 55 69.1% 69.0%
On the ground 52 / 67 77.6% 69.1% 21 / 27 77.8% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 273 / 798 34.2% 37.2% 363 / 870 41.7% 35.3%
To the body 98 / 161 60.9% 68.4% 102 / 160 63.8% 66.9%
To the legs 62 / 82 75.6% 80.7% 189 / 231 81.8% 79.2%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Bantamweight: 121 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Santos L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Castaneda L/AOpp accBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 401 / 804 49.9% 39.3% 590 / 1353 43.6% 39.4%
In the clinch 27 / 39 69.2% 70.3% 67 / 101 66.3% 70.6%
On the ground 14 / 17 too few to rate 69.5% 6 / 10 too few to rate 72.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 309 / 693 44.6% 35.9% 415 / 1134 36.6% 34.9%
To the body 96 / 126 76.2% 68.1% 121 / 171 70.8% 66.1%
To the legs 37 / 41 90.2% 81.1% 127 / 159 79.9% 78.8%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1434.1% acc · 2.49/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
1139.3% acc · 1.26/15 · norm 1.12
1266.7% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
2374.2% def · norm 65.7%
22:2826.7% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
19:2014.8% of cage time · norm 17.8%
6:351:10 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
10:011:08 per 15 · norm 2:24
10.18/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
30.34/15 · norm 0.28

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Castaneda has more cage time on record.