Jake Collier

He names Buday by decision but says so explicitly: 'no confidence in that' -- and adds that he personally has placed no wager on the fight at all -- a direct statement of minimal conviction in the stated side.

A good, mobile striker (movement and leg kicks) who is undersized for heavyweight -- a former middleweight now fighting up -- which the analyst says costs him knockout power at this weight despite still being faster-moving than most heavyweights. Decent, active grappler on top or bottom. The analyst says he has not looked the same since a disputed decision loss he believes he actually won, including a visibly frustrated post-fight interview and a different look in his next fight.

Calls the pick "obvious" for Collier and says he "should win"; pairs that with staking caution -- won't recommend wagering real money or using it in a parlay because of how judges have scored his fights.

Collier is the much longer, taller heavyweight (6'3", 78.5in reach vs. Barnett's 5'9", 75in) and is rated the top of the UFC's bottom-tier heavyweights -- good enough to beat the Chase Shermans and Josh Parisians of the division but not a title threat. He has repeatedly lost close split decisions the analyst feels should have gone his way, including a prior loss to Arlovski he'd have scored for Collier. He is the clear pick, undercut only by a real worry about how judges have scored his fights.