Curtis Blaydes

States plainly he sees the fight "going either way," and the pick leans entirely on guessing Blaydes won't shoot for a takedown, not on a skills edge.

Blaydes still has real power and throws decent combinations and long, accurate straight punches, but the analyst says he's lately been leaning on that striking even though his true path to winning is wrestling. When he commits to it, he can take an opponent down, keep heavy top pressure, and land elbows over the guard, the formula the analyst says built his ranking. The analyst calls it a shame that he's moved away from leaning on that strength.

picks him, flags getting caught

The far more seasoned of the two (roughly three times the pro bouts) and said to have faced a notably tougher run of opposition. His hands are fine -- long strides, workable combinations, real pop -- though lately he leans on them more than his profile suggests he should, since wrestling is where he truly separates himself. On the mat he is the complete package: lands takedowns, controls from the top, punishes once he gets there, and has a particular knack for sliding elbows past the guard. Explicitly not labeled chinny, but also not credited as a durability standout, since he has been stopped before in losses. Judged the likelier man to end up on top, which the analyst treats as the fight's deciding factor either way.

Says he genuinely cannot find a route to Kuniev's side and leans firmly toward Blaydes, yet openly admits a finish is on the table given Blaydes' own knockout history, and never fully closes that door.

Carries legitimate pop on the feet, reaching with long punches and stringing together workable combinations; the analyst notes he's leaned into his hands more than usual lately, which he flags as a bit of a red flag for a fighter who is a wrestler at heart. Primarily a solid grappler/wrestler: he lands takedowns, controls well from the top, and brings excellent ground strikes, including some of the best elbows-over-guard work in the division - as long as he isn't caught on a shot entry, something that has happened to him before.

He names Blaydes outright with a direct comparative case: a significant striking edge plus expected control of the grappling exchanges. The one risk he raises for Blaydes (getting hurt standing, given it is heavyweight) is answered within the same thought rather than left standing, which supports clear rather than a lower grade.

138 calls Blaydes a very solid wrestler with good top pressure and brutal ground-and-pound once on top, plus good takedown defense (noting only a true elite grappler has gotten him down). His striking is decent, with nice long straight punches and decent combinations. He has been hit hard before, but 138 argues that is a heavyweight-wide pattern rather than a bad chin specifically, and expects him to win the striking and control the grappling outcome.

names Aspinall as the better fighter and a big favorite, but immediately concedes a real, unrebutted path back for Blaydes -- noting he has finished Aspinall-style matchups before -- which per the confidence-bar rule pulls this down from an unqualified 'clear.'

A solid wrestler who has leaned into striking in recent fights -- speculated here to be a reaction to a bad experience shooting a takedown on a dangerous striker -- while still carrying good takedowns, top pressure and ground-and-pound in reserve. His own durability is debated without a firm conclusion, since heavyweights in general hit hard enough to explain it.

Lays out a detailed mechanism -- if Blaydes chooses to strike instead of wrestling first, Almeida gets the takedown and control -- and states the pick plainly, noting he gave more detail than usual.

Heavyweight wrestler with good takedown entries for his size, strong top pressure, and very good ground and pound including notable elbow work, but his entries can get sloppy and have been exploited before, including a past knockout loss. His striking is decent -- solid combinations, long straight punches, and real power -- but the analyst says he leans into striking more than he should, and that tendency to want to strike first rather than wrestle first is flagged as the specific opening that lets this matchup go the other way.

He says the pick has already changed a couple of times and 'might change' again, lands only on 'leaning' Curtis Blaze, and pairs the root-beer idiom with an explicit instruction not to bet the fight -- the same two-signal combination treated as coinflip elsewhere on this card, reinforced here by his own stated uncertainty about the pick itself.

A heavyweight wrestler judged very strong in that department, with crisp takedown entries and reliable finishing of the shot -- and rated, in direct comparison, as the better grappler of the two men here. A comparative claim, not a graded phase. He also carries real pop on the feet, though standing and trading is flagged as his worse option against this particular opponent, since he has been put to sleep before.