Derrick Lewis

calls the fight '50/50' twice, by his own words, before naming Lewis as his pick

A heavyweight who still hits as hard in the championship rounds as he does early, with real counter-punching timing, though he mostly throws single shots rather than combinations. His biggest defensive asset is refusing to stay down -- he is described as very hard to hold on the mat. A long UFC career is noted as a wear-and-tear concern against a much younger, less battle-worn opponent.

Explicitly concedes that Waldo controls the output and figures to win the rounds comfortably, and frames the pick purely as a puncher's-chance upset -- one clean punch from Lewis changes everything -- backed by two specific past comeback knockouts rather than a skill edge.

A good striker whose whole game plan is patience -- he keeps his power for late in the fight and wins largely off single shots mixed with counters and timing rather than combinations. Tough to keep on the mat and notably athletic for his size. Analyst's framing is blunt: survive him for 15 minutes without getting hit clean, because if you don't, he's likely finishing you. Picked here purely on puncher's-chance logic, citing specific past knockouts of better fighters and a famous come-from-behind finish as proof it can happen even when he's losing every minute of a fight.

names Lewis outright as the pick with a real mechanism (elite, fight-ending power he can land in any round, plus a floated takedown wildcard), but stacks real hedges on the win itself: says a Lewis fight is simply unpredictable to wager on, concedes the opponent is 'probably the better striker', and calls this 'a tough fight to call'; a fan-bias disclosure (admits he is partly rooting for the guy) does not by itself demote the grade, but the stacked uncertainty language keeps this at lean rather than clear.

Built around elite, record-setting knockout power that holds up deep into a fight -- he can end it in any round of a three-round fight. Very good counters and excellent timing; the tradeoff is that he mostly throws single shots rather than combinations, which the analyst would like to see him add to. Freakishly athletic for his size, including a demonstrated flying knee and getting back to his feet when someone is on top of him. The central story is a stated recent revival: after a stretch of fighting good competition and visibly not wanting to be there, a quick finish win changed things, and he has looked noticeably better and more motivated since, adding new wrinkles to his game.

Asked to justify the pick, the analyst's own answer is a disclosed, non-analytical bias: the event sits in Lewis' hometown and shares his surname, and he admits he may simply want Lewis to win -- not the earlier skill comparison. He also tells the audience directly to avoid betting the fight and separately grants Nascimento a live path to a full-fight grinding win on the mat. Per the standing rule that a bias-driven pick is not itself analysis, confidence here rests only on the comparison he actually gave (power and activity level, a thin basis) rather than on how sure he sounds, which places this at the bottom of the scale.

Carries heavy hands and sharp counter-timing, with a reputation for banking on a late knockout even off single, isolated shots rather than combinations. Tough to control early thanks to real athleticism, though he becomes easier to pin down as a round wears on.

he states the pick plainly, naming Almeida as his pick, but he also concedes a real, unrebutted route for Lewis -- that Lewis's power could end the fight in the opening round -- and even floats a first-round-finish bet as live, which is a conceded path to the loser rather than just a method hedge on Almeida's own win

Derrick Lewis, stepping in for Curtis Blades on what the analyst calls brief but not the shortest possible notice, is credited with good striking: real power that he keeps late, great timing, and real counter-striking ability, holding the UFC's knockout record. The flaw the analyst keeps coming back to is that he relies heavily on single punches rather than combinations, which is a problem if they miss against a grappler. He's also freakishly athletic and difficult to hold down once taken down, coming off a last outing the analyst rates very highly after a rough stretch before it.

Explicitly tells viewers to "pass on this fight" and not bet it, picks de-lima on "momentum" alone, and separately says he wants Lewis to win -- a fan-bias disclosure that does not itself lower the grade, but the staking-caution language does.

Holds the UFC heavyweight knockout record and keeps that power throughout a fight, with excellent timing and counters when he plays patient. The analyst's concern is that he has drifted from that patient counter-style lately into rushing exchanges, which blunts the very timing that makes him dangerous. He mostly throws single shots rather than combinations, which the analyst dislikes as a habit even though it has worked for him. He is also surprisingly athletic and gets back up quickly off his back.

Picks Lewis by knockout but says he's not mega confident and probably won't bet it, and even tells viewers who favor Spivac that they're probably right.

A 37-year-old heavyweight who has gone 3-2 in his last five against a murderer's row of elite competition, which the analyst raises as a possible reason his record looks worse than his real level -- without settling the question either way. His timing on counters is excellent, especially against takedown and level-change attempts, where his insane KO power has ended fights before. He is more athletic than his build suggests and is looking fit. His only real path to victory here is a knockout, since the analyst does not see him winning by decision or on the ground.

Unambiguous and repeated: says he'd be 'dumb not' to take Spivak, and separately states plainly that he likes the pick and is taking him to win. He explicitly separates this from his disclosed rooting interest in Lewis, stating the two as distinct things in the same breath, and his only hedges concern which bet structure to use, not the win itself.

A heavyweight the analyst says is now a finish-or-be-finished fighter, explicitly noting this is a change from earlier in his career when he could still win on the scorecards even without a finish. His power is described as mythical, carrying through a fight even after absorbing heavy punishment, and he has a repeated, hard-to-explain ability to get back up after being taken down.