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UFC simulation vs. the market
Bout Simulator

Odds board — our UFC simulation against the market

LINE MOVES
BIG Elijah Smith (Grant vs Smith) ▼ 131¢ since open NOTABLE Joshua Van (Van vs Kape) ▼ 95¢ since open NOTABLE Davey Grant (Grant vs Smith) ▲ 92¢ since open NOTABLE Manel Kape (Van vs Kape) ▲ 90¢ since open NOTABLE Luis Gurule (Hasan vs Gurule) ▼ 73¢ since open NOTABLE Karine Silva (Silva vs Fernandes) ▼ 60¢ since open NOTABLE Quillan Salkilld (Salkilld vs Denis) ▼ 52¢ since open NOTABLE Gabriella Fernandes (Silva vs Fernandes) ▲ 50¢ since open DRIFT Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Cortes-Acosta vs Walker) ▲ 48¢ since open DRIFT Lucas Fernando (Elekana vs Fernando) ▼ 42¢ since open DRIFT Caio Borralho (Borralho vs Belgaroui) ▼ 42¢ since open DRIFT Billy Elekana (Elekana vs Fernando) ▲ 36¢ since open
LINES 2 HOURS AGO30 BOOKS TRACKED
ODDS BOARD · LAS VEGAS, NEVADA, U.S.

UFC Fight Night: Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker

NOVEMBER 7, 2026 11 BOUTS 1 CALL LINES 2 HOURS AGO
WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT Tatiana Suarez vs. Virna Jandiroba FAVOURITE · A FAVOURITE WE RATE HIGHER STILL MONEY MOVING OUR WAY $284

Tatiana Suarez

over Virna Jandiroba · Women's Strawweight

SUAREZ IS 7-0 VS ORTHODOX FIGHTERS Ends by Decision 64% SEE THE FIGHT →

Suarez mainly on striking defense, striking output and takedowns; Jandiroba's edge is submission game.

SUAREZ'S FAIR ODDS -222 LAST 6 DAYS
6D AGO3DNOW
BOUTSCOUT -222 THE MARKET -179
MONEY MOVING OUR WAY ▼ 22¢ SINCE OPEN BEST AT Betfair -189
69%
BOUTSCOUT
% TO WIN
64%
25 BOOKS
% TO WIN
+5
GAP
HOW SUAREZ WINSOUR SIM
KO / TKO 25%
Submission 12%
Decision 64%
RE-SIMULATE WITH YOUR OWN SETTINGS
NO CALL · 10 BOUTS  ·  BOUTSCOUT / BOOK
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Johnny Walker WALKER · NO CALL (NEAR-EVEN RULE)
Cortes-Acosta mainly on durability and striking output; Walker's edge is knockdown power and size and reach.
65 / 67
→
Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith
Smith mainly on age, submission game and striking defense; Grant's edge is striking output.
25 / 27
→
Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando ELEKANA · NO CALL (NEAR-EVEN RULE)
Fernando mainly on knockdown power, striking output and striking defense; Elekana's edge is 138 MMA's read and top control.
46 / 27
→
Mantas Kondratavičius vs Andre Petroski PETROSKI · NO CALL (NEAR-EVEN RULE)
Kondratavicius mainly on age, knockdown power and durability; Petroski's edge is top control.
65 / 71
→
Gabriel Lorenço vs Thomas Petersen NO UFC DATA
— / 40
→
Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes
Silva mainly on striking defense, durability and strength of schedule; Fernandes's edge is striking output.
70 / 67
→
Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli DEBUT READ
Degli mainly on striking output, 138 MMA's read and striking defense.
28 / 33
→
José Mauro Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov
Delano on striking output; Magomedov's edge is submission game.
53 / 51
→
Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid SCHMID · NO CALL (NEAR-EVEN RULE)
Nakamura mainly on durability, knockdown power and recent form.
70 / 76
→
Priscila Cachoeira vs Nina Nikolija Milošević
Milosevic mainly on durability, striking defense and submission game.
18 / 19
→
ODDS BOARD · NEW YORK CITY, NEW YORK, U.S.

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

NOVEMBER 14, 2026 9 BOUTS LINES 2 HOURS AGO
NO CALL · 9 BOUTS  ·  BOUTSCOUT / BOOK
Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit COIN FLIP · NO CALL
Dead even — the edges cancel: striking defense and size and reach (Gane) against striking output, age and knockdown power (Hokit).
50 / 69
→
Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes
Harrison mainly on striking defense, submission game and cardio; Nunes's edge is depth of record and size and reach.
66 / 62
→
Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui COIN FLIP · NO CALL
Dead even — the edges cancel: top control, strength of schedule and durability (Borralho) against striking output and recent form (Belgaroui).
52 / 58
→
Uroš Medić vs Kevin Holland HOLLAND · NO CALL (NEAR-EVEN RULE)
Holland mainly on durability, submission game and top control; Medic's edge is knockdown power and recent form.
42 / 59
→
Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule GURULE · NO CALL (NEAR-EVEN RULE)
Hasan mainly on striking defense, knockdown power and age.
83 / 86
→
Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan
Duncan mainly on durability, submission game and age.
25 / 43
→
Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney MILLER · NO CALL (NEAR-EVEN RULE)
McKinney mainly on age, knockdown power and top control; Miller's edge is durability and submission game.
40 / 34
→
Donte Johnson vs César Almeida
Johnson mainly on age, durability and top control.
83 / 58
→
Macy Chiasson vs Beatriz Mesquita
— / 34
·
ODDS BOARD · AL RAYYAN, QATAR

UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling

NOVEMBER 21, 2026 1 BOUT 1 CALL LINES 2 HOURS AGO
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT Jiří Procházka vs. Navajo Stirling FAVOURITE · A FAVOURITE WE RATE HIGHER STILL MONEY MOVING OUR WAY $248

Navajo Stirling

over Jiří Procházka · Light Heavyweight

Ends by KO/TKO 53% SEE THE FIGHT →

Stirling mainly on durability, striking defense and recent form; Prochazka's edge is strength of schedule.

STIRLING'S FAIR ODDS -230 LAST 2 DAYS
2D AGO24HNOW
BOUTSCOUT -230 THE MARKET -134
MONEY MOVING OUR WAY ▼ 32¢ SINCE OPEN BEST AT BetOnline -165
70%
BOUTSCOUT
% TO WIN
57%
5 BOOKS
% TO WIN
+12
GAP
HOW STIRLING WINSOUR SIM
KO / TKO 53%
Submission 8%
Decision 38%
RE-SIMULATE WITH YOUR OWN SETTINGS
ODDS BOARD · LAS VEGAS, NEVADA, U.S.

UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes

DECEMBER 12, 2026 1 BOUT LINES 2 HOURS AGO
NO CALL · 1 BOUT  ·  BOUTSCOUT / BOOK
Charles Oliveira vs Diego Lopes LOPES · NO CALL (NEAR-EVEN RULE)
Lopes mainly on durability, submission game and age; Oliveira's edge is striking defense.
24 / 58
→
ODDS BOARD · TORONTO, ONTARIO, CANADA

UFC 336: Van vs. Kape

JANUARY 30, 2027 2 BOUTS LINES 2 HOURS AGO
NO CALL · 2 BOUTS  ·  BOUTSCOUT / BOOK
Joshua Van vs Manel Kape FLIPPED
Van mainly on striking output, age and size and reach; Kape's edge is striking defense and durability.
55 / 54
→
Carlos Prates vs Michael Morales MORALES · NO CALL (NEAR-EVEN RULE)
Morales mainly on striking output, striking defense and age.
34 / 60
→
ODDS BOARD · SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA

UFC Fight Night: Salkilld vs. Saint Denis

FEBRUARY 7, 2027 1 BOUT LINES 2 HOURS AGO
NO CALL · 1 BOUT  ·  BOUTSCOUT / BOOK
Quillan Salkilld vs Benoît Saint Denis DENIS · NO CALL (NEAR-EVEN RULE)
Salkilld mainly on submission game, durability and recent form; Denis's edge is top control.
62 / 66
→
TIER RECORD
FAVOURITE 2–0 +$199 · 6 live
UNDERDOG 1–0 +$168
FULL RECORD →
COMING UP
UFC Fight Night 295 December 5, 2026 · 7 BOUTS UFC Fight Night 296 January 16, 2027 · 0 BOUTS
HOW TO READ THE BOARD
SIMULATE ANY FIGHT →

Our number comes from 10,000 seeded simulations per bout, built only from what's in our database. It never sees a betting line. The book's number is every book's moneyline with the vig stripped out. A call fires when the two split far enough on the same fighter, and the size of the split sets the tier. When our number sits within 2 points of 50% the bout is a coin flip: no call, whatever the price.

Our line on each chart is level because the simulation does not chase a price — it only moves when the fighter data does. The market's line is every price we have captured for that bout.

Board rebuilt 07:00 UTC · 4 Nov.

Off-card bookings (43)
Denis Frimpong vs Ozan Aslaner
— / 49
·
Zafar Mohsen vs Gjoni Palokaj
— / 48
·
Max Holzer vs Igor Severino
— / 32
·
Kenji Bortoluzzi vs Islam Djabrailov
— / 32
·
Yasmin Guimaraes vs Josefine Knutsson
— / 42
·
Samuel Bark vs Karol Rosa
— / 67
·
Jonny Parsons vs José Henrique
— / 33
·
Gabriel Bonfim vs Sean Brady
— / 54
·
Seok Hyun Ko vs Wellington Turman
— / 85
·
Stephen Thompson vs Charlie Radtke
— / 53
·
Evan Elder vs Samuel Sanches
— / 52
·
Melquizael Costa vs Jared Gordon
— / 77
·
Magomed Magomedov vs Lucas Gabriel
— / 47
·
Igor Michaliszyn vs Tomasz Romanowski
— / 58
·
Mateusz Pawlik vs Madars Fleminas
— / 33
·
Marcin Held vs Valeriu Mircea
— / 48
·
Steven Krt vs Oskar Szczepaniak
— / 26
·
Sasha Moisa vs Wojciech Kawa
— / 65
·
Bo Nickal vs Joseph Pyfer
— / 36
·
Sergey Pavlovich vs Alex Pereira
— / 64
·
Josh Hokit vs Alex Pereira
— / 60
·
Justin Gaethje vs Arman Tsarukyan
— / 21
·
Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria
— / 31
·
Valentina Shevchenko vs Natalia Silva
— / 52
·
Conor McGregor vs Jorge Masvidal
— / 57
·
Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van
— / 54
·
Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane
— / 56
·
Khamzat Chimaev vs Paulo Henrique Costa
— / 80
·
Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev
— / 35
·
Max Holloway vs Paddy Pimblett
— / 62
·
Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan
— / 41
·
Sean Strickland vs Nassourdine Imavov
— / 52
·
Natalia Silva vs Alexa Grasso
— / 72
·
Islam Makhachev vs Carlos Prates
— / 67
·
Islam Makhachev vs Michael Morales
— / 65
·
Petr Yan vs Sean O'Malley
— / 69
·
Alex Volkanovski vs Jean Silva
— / 51
·
Islam Makhachev vs Kamaru Usman
— / 78
·
Paddy Pimblett vs Conor McGregor
— / 60
·
Petr Yan vs Song Yadong
— / 69
·
Magomed Ankalaev vs Carlos Ulberg
— / 62
·
Magomed Ankalaev vs Jiri Prochazka
— / 65
·
Justin Gaethje vs Alex Volkanovski
— / 62
·
FOR ENTERTAINMENT ONLY. ANALYSIS, NOT BETTING ADVICE. BOUT SCOUT · FULL UFC HISTORY